47% of adult Bulgarians, or just under 2.5m people, say they will vote in the presidential election on 25 October, a poll by the Trend agency shows.

Trend considers a runoff between Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov certain. It says actual turnout can, as a rule, fall short of the share who say they will vote.

The Yotova and Valchev ticket has 45.9% of those ready to vote. Gyurov and Kandev have 27.8%, and Kostadinov and Volgin 10.9%. Behind them are Vasilev and Manov (3.2%), Hristanov and Cherkezova (2.4%), and Mihaylov and Mateeva (2.2%).

The campaign has not changed the order of the candidates. The lead of Yotova and Valchev over Gyurov and Kandev has fallen from nearly 23 percentage points in late September and early October to 18 points at the end of the campaign.

A media outlet commissioned the poll. It covered 1,002 adults living in Bulgaria, who were interviewed face to face using a standardised questionnaire between 4 and 20 October 2026. The maximum margin of error is ±3.1%.